Carter sharer
YouTuber Carter Sharer Spent This Many Hours Making Videos
2022.10.22 00:57 shynailgirl YouTuber Carter Sharer Spent This Many Hours Making Videos
 | submitted by shynailgirl to ThisCelebrity [link] [comments] |
2022.10.17 17:57 shynailgirl Find Out the Most Money YouTube Star Carter Sharer Has Ever Spent on a Car
 | submitted by shynailgirl to ThisCelebrity [link] [comments] |
2022.10.04 03:59 TJ-Leigh Jeremy Hutchins copied Carter Sharer's Thumbnail + Video!!!
 | submitted by TJ-Leigh to TheAsherShow [link] [comments] |
2022.09.28 07:02 Inevitable_Pin5141 We have another copy on YouTube
 | submitted by Inevitable_Pin5141 to TheAsherShow [link] [comments] |
2022.09.01 06:24 biograpygossips2022 Carter Sharer Net Worth 2022, A
 | submitted by biograpygossips2022 to u/biograpygossips2022 [link] [comments] |
2022.08.16 17:38 ur-mom88 the kid I'm babysitting is watching Carter Sharer đđ
 | submitted by ur-mom88 to DannyGonzalez [link] [comments] |
2022.07.19 22:22 ItsHorrifying THe Statement of Randolph Carter
I repeat to you, gentlemen, that your inquisition is fruitless. Detain me here forever if you will; confine or execute me if you must have a victim to propitiate the illusion you call justice; but I can say no more than I have said already. Everything that I can remember, I have told with perfect candour. Nothing has been distorted or concealed, and if anything remains vague, it is only because of the dark cloud which has come over my mindâthat cloud and the nebulous nature of the horrors which brought it upon me.
Again I say, I do not know what has become of Harley Warren; though I thinkâalmost hopeâthat he is in peaceful oblivion, if there be anywhere so blessed a thing. It is true that I have for five years been his closest friend, and a partial sharer of his terrible researches into the unknown. I will not deny, though my memory is uncertain and indistinct, that this witness of yours may have seen us together as he says, on the Gainesville pike, walking toward Big Cypress Swamp, at half past eleven on that awful night. That we bore electric lanterns, spades, and a curious coil of wire with attached instruments, I will even affirm; for these things all played a part in the single hideous scene which remains burned into my shaken recollection. But of what followed, and of the reason I was found alone and dazed on the edge of the swamp next morning, I must insist that I know nothing save what I have told you over and over again. You say to me that there is nothing in the swamp or near it which could form the setting of that frightful episode. I reply that I know nothing beyond what I saw. Vision or nightmare it may have beenâvision or nightmare I fervently hope it wasâyet it is all that my mind retains of what took place in those shocking hours after we left the sight of men. And why Harley Warren did not return, he or his shadeâor some nameless thing I cannot describeâalone can tell.
As I have said before, the weird studies of Harley Warren were well known to me, and to some extent shared by me. Of his vast collection of strange, rare books on forbidden subjects I have read all that are written in the languages of which I am master; but these are few as compared with those in languages I cannot understand. Most, I believe, are in Arabic; and the fiend-inspired book which brought on the endâthe book which he carried in his pocket out of the worldâwas written in characters whose like I never saw elsewhere. Warren would never tell me just what was in that book. As to the nature of our studiesâmust I say again that I no longer retain full comprehension? It seems to me rather merciful that I do not, for they were terrible studies, which I pursued more through reluctant fascination than through actual inclination. Warren always dominated me, and sometimes I feared him. I remember how I shuddered at his facial expression on the night before the awful happening, when he talked so incessantly of his theory, why certain corpses never decay, but rest firm and fat in their tombs for a thousand years. But I do not fear him now, for I suspect that he has known horrors beyond my ken. Now I fear for him.
Once more I say that I have no clear idea of our object on that night. Certainly, it had much to do with something in the book which Warren carried with himâthat ancient book in undecipherable characters which had come to him from India a month beforeâbut I swear I do not know what it was that we expected to find. Your witness says he saw us at half past eleven on the Gainesville pike, headed for Big Cypress Swamp. This is probably true, but I have no distinct memory of it. The picture seared into my soul is of one scene only, and the hour must have been long after midnight; for a waning crescent moon was high in the vaporous heavens.
The place was an ancient cemetery; so ancient that I trembled at the manifold signs of immemorial years. It was in a deep, damp hollow, overgrown with rank grass, moss, and curious creeping weeds, and filled with a vague stench which my idle fancy associated absurdly with rotting stone. On every hand were the signs of neglect and decrepitude, and I seemed haunted by the notion that Warren and I were the first living creatures to invade a lethal silence of centuries. Over the valleyâs rim a wan, waning crescent moon peered through the noisome vapours that seemed to emanate from unheard-of catacombs, and by its feeble, wavering beams I could distinguish a repellent array of antique slabs, urns, cenotaphs, and mausolean facades; all crumbling, moss-grown, and moisture-stained, and partly concealed by the gross luxuriance of the unhealthy vegetation. My first vivid impression of my own presence in this terrible necropolis concerns the act of pausing with Warren before a certain half-obliterated sepulchre, and of throwing down some burdens which we seemed to have been carrying. I now observed that I had with me an electric lantern and two spades, whilst my companion was supplied with a similar lantern and a portable telephone outfit. No word was uttered, for the spot and the task seemed known to us; and without delay we seized our spades and commenced to clear away the grass, weeds, and drifted earth from the flat, archaic mortuary. After uncovering the entire surface, which consisted of three immense granite slabs, we stepped back some distance to survey the charnel scene; and Warren appeared to make some mental calculations. Then he returned to the sepulchre, and using his spade as a lever, sought to pry up the slab lying nearest to a stony ruin which may have been a monument in its day. He did not succeed, and motioned to me to come to his assistance. Finally our combined strength loosened the stone, which we raised and tipped to one side.
The removal of the slab revealed a black aperture, from which rushed an effluence of miasmal gases so nauseous that we started back in horror. After an interval, however, we approached the pit again, and found the exhalations less unbearable. Our lanterns disclosed the top of a flight of stone steps, dripping with some detestable ichor of the inner earth, and bordered by moist walls encrusted with nitre. And now for the first time my memory records verbal discourse, Warren addressing me at length in his mellow tenor voice; a voice singularly unperturbed by our awesome surroundings.
âIâm sorry to have to ask you to stay on the surface,â he said, âbut it would be a crime to let anyone with your frail nerves go down there. You canât imagine, even from what you have read and from what Iâve told you, the things I shall have to see and do. Itâs fiendish work, Carter, and I doubt if any man without ironclad sensibilities could ever see it through and come up alive and sane. I donât wish to offend you, and heaven knows Iâd be glad enough to have you with me; but the responsibility is in a certain sense mine, and I couldnât drag a bundle of nerves like you down to probable death or madness. I tell you, you canât imagine what the thing is really like! But I promise to keep you informed over the telephone of every moveâyou see Iâve enough wire here to reach to the centre of the earth and back!â
I can still hear, in memory, those coolly spoken words; and I can still remember my remonstrances. I seemed desperately anxious to accompany my friend into those sepulchral depths, yet he proved inflexibly obdurate. At one time he threatened to abandon the expedition if I remained insistent; a threat which proved effective, since he alone held the key to the thing. All this I can still remember, though I no longer know what manner of thing we sought. After he had secured my reluctant acquiescence in his design, Warren picked up the reel of wire and adjusted the instruments. At his nod I took one of the latter and seated myself upon an aged, discoloured gravestone close by the newly uncovered aperture. Then he shook my hand, shouldered the coil of wire, and disappeared within that indescribable ossuary. For a moment I kept sight of the glow of his lantern, and heard the rustle of the wire as he laid it down after him; but the glow soon disappeared abruptly, as if a turn in the stone staircase had been encountered, and the sound died away almost as quickly. I was alone, yet bound to the unknown depths by those magic strands whose insulated surface lay green beneath the struggling beams of that waning crescent moon.
In the lone silence of that hoary and deserted city of the dead, my mind conceived the most ghastly phantasies and illusions; and the grotesque shrines and monoliths seemed to assume a hideous personalityâa half-sentience. Amorphous shadows seemed to lurk in the darker recesses of the weed-choked hollow and to flit as in some blasphemous ceremonial procession past the portals of the mouldering tombs in the hillside; shadows which could not have been cast by that pallid, peering crescent moon. I constantly consulted my watch by the light of my electric lantern, and listened with feverish anxiety at the receiver of the telephone; but for more than a quarter of an hour heard nothing. Then a faint clicking came from the instrument, and I called down to my friend in a tense voice. Apprehensive as I was, I was nevertheless unprepared for the words which came up from that uncanny vault in accents more alarmed and quivering than any I had heard before from Harley Warren. He who had so calmly left me a little while previously, now called from below in a shaky whisper more portentous than the loudest shriek:
âGod! If you could see what I am seeing!â
I could not answer. Speechless, I could only wait. Then came the frenzied tones again:
âCarter, itâs terribleâmonstrousâunbelievable!â
This time my voice did not fail me, and I poured into the transmitter a flood of excited questions. Terrified, I continued to repeat, âWarren, what is it? What is it?â
Once more came the voice of my friend, still hoarse with fear, and now apparently tinged with despair:
âI canât tell you, Carter! Itâs too utterly beyond thoughtâI dare not tell youâno man could know it and liveâGreat God! I never dreamed of THIS!â Stillness again, save for my now incoherent torrent of shuddering inquiry. Then the voice of Warren in a pitch of wilder consternation:
âCarter! for the love of God, put back the slab and get out of this if you can! Quick!âleave everything else and make for the outsideâitâs your only chance! Do as I say, and donât ask me to explain!â
I heard, yet was able only to repeat my frantic questions. Around me were the tombs and the darkness and the shadows; below me, some peril beyond the radius of the human imagination. But my friend was in greater danger than I, and through my fear I felt a vague resentment that he should deem me capable of deserting him under such circumstances. More clicking, and after a pause a piteous cry from Warren:
âBeat it! For Godâs sake, put back the slab and beat it, Carter!â
Something in the boyish slang of my evidently stricken companion unleashed my faculties. I formed and shouted a resolution, âWarren, brace up! Iâm coming down!â But at this offer the tone of my auditor changed to a scream of utter despair:
âDonât! You canât understand! Itâs too lateâand my own fault. Put back the slab and runâthereâs nothing else you or anyone can do now!â The tone changed again, this time acquiring a softer quality, as of hopeless resignation. Yet it remained tense through anxiety for me.
âQuickâbefore itâs too late!â I tried not to heed him; tried to break through the paralysis which held me, and to fulfil my vow to rush down to his aid. But his next whisper found me still held inert in the chains of stark horror.
âCarterâhurry! Itâs no useâyou must goâbetter one than twoâthe slabââ A pause, more clicking, then the faint voice of Warren:
âNearly over nowâdonât make it harderâcover up those damned steps and run for your lifeâyouâre losing timeâ So long, Carterâwonât see you again.â Here Warrenâs whisper swelled into a cry; a cry that gradually rose to a shriek fraught with all the horror of the agesâ
âCurse these hellish thingsâlegionsâ My God! Beat it! Beat it! Beat it!â
After that was silence. I know not how many interminable aeons I sat stupefied; whispering, muttering, calling, screaming into that telephone. Over and over again through those aeons I whispered and muttered, called, shouted, and screamed, âWarren! Warren! Answer meâare you there?â
And then there came to me the crowning horror of allâthe unbelievable, unthinkable, almost unmentionable thing. I have said that aeons seemed to elapse after Warren shrieked forth his last despairing warning, and that only my own cries now broke the hideous silence. But after a while there was a further clicking in the receiver, and I strained my ears to listen. Again I called down, âWarren, are you there?â, and in answer heard the thing which has brought this cloud over my mind. I do not try, gentlemen, to account for that thingâthat voiceânor can I venture to describe it in detail, since the first words took away my consciousness and created a mental blank which reaches to the time of my awakening in the hospital. Shall I say that the voice was deep; hollow; gelatinous; remote; unearthly; inhuman; disembodied? What shall I say? It was the end of my experience, and is the end of my story. I heard it, and knew no more. Heard it as I sat petrified in that unknown cemetery in the hollow, amidst the crumbling stones and the falling tombs, the rank vegetation and the miasmal vapours. Heard it well up from the innermost depths of that damnable open sepulchre as I watched amorphous, necrophagous shadows dance beneath an accursed waning moon. And this is what it said:
âYOU FOOL, WARREN IS DEAD!â
submitted by ItsHorrifying to HorrorLabs [link] [comments]
Again I say, I do not know what has become of Harley Warren; though I thinkâalmost hopeâthat he is in peaceful oblivion, if there be anywhere so blessed a thing. It is true that I have for five years been his closest friend, and a partial sharer of his terrible researches into the unknown. I will not deny, though my memory is uncertain and indistinct, that this witness of yours may have seen us together as he says, on the Gainesville pike, walking toward Big Cypress Swamp, at half past eleven on that awful night. That we bore electric lanterns, spades, and a curious coil of wire with attached instruments, I will even affirm; for these things all played a part in the single hideous scene which remains burned into my shaken recollection. But of what followed, and of the reason I was found alone and dazed on the edge of the swamp next morning, I must insist that I know nothing save what I have told you over and over again. You say to me that there is nothing in the swamp or near it which could form the setting of that frightful episode. I reply that I know nothing beyond what I saw. Vision or nightmare it may have beenâvision or nightmare I fervently hope it wasâyet it is all that my mind retains of what took place in those shocking hours after we left the sight of men. And why Harley Warren did not return, he or his shadeâor some nameless thing I cannot describeâalone can tell.
As I have said before, the weird studies of Harley Warren were well known to me, and to some extent shared by me. Of his vast collection of strange, rare books on forbidden subjects I have read all that are written in the languages of which I am master; but these are few as compared with those in languages I cannot understand. Most, I believe, are in Arabic; and the fiend-inspired book which brought on the endâthe book which he carried in his pocket out of the worldâwas written in characters whose like I never saw elsewhere. Warren would never tell me just what was in that book. As to the nature of our studiesâmust I say again that I no longer retain full comprehension? It seems to me rather merciful that I do not, for they were terrible studies, which I pursued more through reluctant fascination than through actual inclination. Warren always dominated me, and sometimes I feared him. I remember how I shuddered at his facial expression on the night before the awful happening, when he talked so incessantly of his theory, why certain corpses never decay, but rest firm and fat in their tombs for a thousand years. But I do not fear him now, for I suspect that he has known horrors beyond my ken. Now I fear for him.
Once more I say that I have no clear idea of our object on that night. Certainly, it had much to do with something in the book which Warren carried with himâthat ancient book in undecipherable characters which had come to him from India a month beforeâbut I swear I do not know what it was that we expected to find. Your witness says he saw us at half past eleven on the Gainesville pike, headed for Big Cypress Swamp. This is probably true, but I have no distinct memory of it. The picture seared into my soul is of one scene only, and the hour must have been long after midnight; for a waning crescent moon was high in the vaporous heavens.
The place was an ancient cemetery; so ancient that I trembled at the manifold signs of immemorial years. It was in a deep, damp hollow, overgrown with rank grass, moss, and curious creeping weeds, and filled with a vague stench which my idle fancy associated absurdly with rotting stone. On every hand were the signs of neglect and decrepitude, and I seemed haunted by the notion that Warren and I were the first living creatures to invade a lethal silence of centuries. Over the valleyâs rim a wan, waning crescent moon peered through the noisome vapours that seemed to emanate from unheard-of catacombs, and by its feeble, wavering beams I could distinguish a repellent array of antique slabs, urns, cenotaphs, and mausolean facades; all crumbling, moss-grown, and moisture-stained, and partly concealed by the gross luxuriance of the unhealthy vegetation. My first vivid impression of my own presence in this terrible necropolis concerns the act of pausing with Warren before a certain half-obliterated sepulchre, and of throwing down some burdens which we seemed to have been carrying. I now observed that I had with me an electric lantern and two spades, whilst my companion was supplied with a similar lantern and a portable telephone outfit. No word was uttered, for the spot and the task seemed known to us; and without delay we seized our spades and commenced to clear away the grass, weeds, and drifted earth from the flat, archaic mortuary. After uncovering the entire surface, which consisted of three immense granite slabs, we stepped back some distance to survey the charnel scene; and Warren appeared to make some mental calculations. Then he returned to the sepulchre, and using his spade as a lever, sought to pry up the slab lying nearest to a stony ruin which may have been a monument in its day. He did not succeed, and motioned to me to come to his assistance. Finally our combined strength loosened the stone, which we raised and tipped to one side.
The removal of the slab revealed a black aperture, from which rushed an effluence of miasmal gases so nauseous that we started back in horror. After an interval, however, we approached the pit again, and found the exhalations less unbearable. Our lanterns disclosed the top of a flight of stone steps, dripping with some detestable ichor of the inner earth, and bordered by moist walls encrusted with nitre. And now for the first time my memory records verbal discourse, Warren addressing me at length in his mellow tenor voice; a voice singularly unperturbed by our awesome surroundings.
âIâm sorry to have to ask you to stay on the surface,â he said, âbut it would be a crime to let anyone with your frail nerves go down there. You canât imagine, even from what you have read and from what Iâve told you, the things I shall have to see and do. Itâs fiendish work, Carter, and I doubt if any man without ironclad sensibilities could ever see it through and come up alive and sane. I donât wish to offend you, and heaven knows Iâd be glad enough to have you with me; but the responsibility is in a certain sense mine, and I couldnât drag a bundle of nerves like you down to probable death or madness. I tell you, you canât imagine what the thing is really like! But I promise to keep you informed over the telephone of every moveâyou see Iâve enough wire here to reach to the centre of the earth and back!â
I can still hear, in memory, those coolly spoken words; and I can still remember my remonstrances. I seemed desperately anxious to accompany my friend into those sepulchral depths, yet he proved inflexibly obdurate. At one time he threatened to abandon the expedition if I remained insistent; a threat which proved effective, since he alone held the key to the thing. All this I can still remember, though I no longer know what manner of thing we sought. After he had secured my reluctant acquiescence in his design, Warren picked up the reel of wire and adjusted the instruments. At his nod I took one of the latter and seated myself upon an aged, discoloured gravestone close by the newly uncovered aperture. Then he shook my hand, shouldered the coil of wire, and disappeared within that indescribable ossuary. For a moment I kept sight of the glow of his lantern, and heard the rustle of the wire as he laid it down after him; but the glow soon disappeared abruptly, as if a turn in the stone staircase had been encountered, and the sound died away almost as quickly. I was alone, yet bound to the unknown depths by those magic strands whose insulated surface lay green beneath the struggling beams of that waning crescent moon.
In the lone silence of that hoary and deserted city of the dead, my mind conceived the most ghastly phantasies and illusions; and the grotesque shrines and monoliths seemed to assume a hideous personalityâa half-sentience. Amorphous shadows seemed to lurk in the darker recesses of the weed-choked hollow and to flit as in some blasphemous ceremonial procession past the portals of the mouldering tombs in the hillside; shadows which could not have been cast by that pallid, peering crescent moon. I constantly consulted my watch by the light of my electric lantern, and listened with feverish anxiety at the receiver of the telephone; but for more than a quarter of an hour heard nothing. Then a faint clicking came from the instrument, and I called down to my friend in a tense voice. Apprehensive as I was, I was nevertheless unprepared for the words which came up from that uncanny vault in accents more alarmed and quivering than any I had heard before from Harley Warren. He who had so calmly left me a little while previously, now called from below in a shaky whisper more portentous than the loudest shriek:
âGod! If you could see what I am seeing!â
I could not answer. Speechless, I could only wait. Then came the frenzied tones again:
âCarter, itâs terribleâmonstrousâunbelievable!â
This time my voice did not fail me, and I poured into the transmitter a flood of excited questions. Terrified, I continued to repeat, âWarren, what is it? What is it?â
Once more came the voice of my friend, still hoarse with fear, and now apparently tinged with despair:
âI canât tell you, Carter! Itâs too utterly beyond thoughtâI dare not tell youâno man could know it and liveâGreat God! I never dreamed of THIS!â Stillness again, save for my now incoherent torrent of shuddering inquiry. Then the voice of Warren in a pitch of wilder consternation:
âCarter! for the love of God, put back the slab and get out of this if you can! Quick!âleave everything else and make for the outsideâitâs your only chance! Do as I say, and donât ask me to explain!â
I heard, yet was able only to repeat my frantic questions. Around me were the tombs and the darkness and the shadows; below me, some peril beyond the radius of the human imagination. But my friend was in greater danger than I, and through my fear I felt a vague resentment that he should deem me capable of deserting him under such circumstances. More clicking, and after a pause a piteous cry from Warren:
âBeat it! For Godâs sake, put back the slab and beat it, Carter!â
Something in the boyish slang of my evidently stricken companion unleashed my faculties. I formed and shouted a resolution, âWarren, brace up! Iâm coming down!â But at this offer the tone of my auditor changed to a scream of utter despair:
âDonât! You canât understand! Itâs too lateâand my own fault. Put back the slab and runâthereâs nothing else you or anyone can do now!â The tone changed again, this time acquiring a softer quality, as of hopeless resignation. Yet it remained tense through anxiety for me.
âQuickâbefore itâs too late!â I tried not to heed him; tried to break through the paralysis which held me, and to fulfil my vow to rush down to his aid. But his next whisper found me still held inert in the chains of stark horror.
âCarterâhurry! Itâs no useâyou must goâbetter one than twoâthe slabââ A pause, more clicking, then the faint voice of Warren:
âNearly over nowâdonât make it harderâcover up those damned steps and run for your lifeâyouâre losing timeâ So long, Carterâwonât see you again.â Here Warrenâs whisper swelled into a cry; a cry that gradually rose to a shriek fraught with all the horror of the agesâ
âCurse these hellish thingsâlegionsâ My God! Beat it! Beat it! Beat it!â
After that was silence. I know not how many interminable aeons I sat stupefied; whispering, muttering, calling, screaming into that telephone. Over and over again through those aeons I whispered and muttered, called, shouted, and screamed, âWarren! Warren! Answer meâare you there?â
And then there came to me the crowning horror of allâthe unbelievable, unthinkable, almost unmentionable thing. I have said that aeons seemed to elapse after Warren shrieked forth his last despairing warning, and that only my own cries now broke the hideous silence. But after a while there was a further clicking in the receiver, and I strained my ears to listen. Again I called down, âWarren, are you there?â, and in answer heard the thing which has brought this cloud over my mind. I do not try, gentlemen, to account for that thingâthat voiceânor can I venture to describe it in detail, since the first words took away my consciousness and created a mental blank which reaches to the time of my awakening in the hospital. Shall I say that the voice was deep; hollow; gelatinous; remote; unearthly; inhuman; disembodied? What shall I say? It was the end of my experience, and is the end of my story. I heard it, and knew no more. Heard it as I sat petrified in that unknown cemetery in the hollow, amidst the crumbling stones and the falling tombs, the rank vegetation and the miasmal vapours. Heard it well up from the innermost depths of that damnable open sepulchre as I watched amorphous, necrophagous shadows dance beneath an accursed waning moon. And this is what it said:
âYOU FOOL, WARREN IS DEAD!â
2022.07.14 12:19 heavyrude We ADOPTED the WORST Daughter - ft Jordan Matter https://lykelyfe.com/we-adopted-the-worst-daughter-ft-jordan-matter/?feed_id=8215&_unique_id=62cfed96a81e2 #123go #24hours #adopted #AlexWarren #Alexarivera #amp #andrewdavila #benazelart #BrentRivera #CarterSharer #daughter #DharMann #dombrack #F...
 | submitted by heavyrude to u/heavyrude [link] [comments] |
2022.07.13 00:44 squ0dMan hey man i found this guy called Jeremy Hutchins and he steals thumbnails from creators like airrack, mrbeast, carter sharer etc. Also that banner looks similar to mrbeast's one
 | submitted by squ0dMan to TheAsherShow [link] [comments] |
2022.07.06 18:50 22lucie skin full video canon 4k video camera capcom video games carrie underwood videos cartel kill video cartel torture videos cartel videos killing cartel videos killings carter sharer videos cartoon porn hub videos cartoon video game cartoonporn videos casa video casa video tucson cassidy banks full vi
submitted by 22lucie to u/22lucie [link] [comments]
2022.06.08 20:59 Playful-External-108 i just found out a youtuber called Carter Sharer with 8 million subs has a lot of playbuttons (sorry for bad quality)
 | submitted by Playful-External-108 to JackSucksAtLife [link] [comments] |
2022.06.02 18:00 OnewheelinBart We took Bodhi Harrison from The FloatLife to Carter Sharerâs Garage and Props room
 | submitted by OnewheelinBart to onewheel [link] [comments] |
2021.03.19 13:30 rSlashPsycho Will Team Rar sell out?
I honestly really like the design of the little alien guy, but I hate Carter Sharer. Do you think the figure will sell out fast or be like the next Dobre Brothers?
View Poll
submitted by rSlashPsycho to Youtooz [link] [comments]
View Poll
2021.03.16 19:53 PsychoTyler tell me
submitted by PsychoTyler to Youtooz [link] [comments]2021.03.16 18:56 CreeperRussS Is this how they show the youtooz
They basically just tell them hey post this image onto your twitter please
Also are we done today we currently have 3 so far which will probably drop together, wait that means a porn star is dropping with Carter Sharer LMAO
submitted by CreeperRussS to Youtooz [link] [comments]
Also are we done today we currently have 3 so far which will probably drop together, wait that means a porn star is dropping with Carter Sharer LMAO
2021.03.16 18:25 CreeperRussS ITS A FAMILY FRIENDLY YOUTUBER (Carter Sharer)
 | submitted by CreeperRussS to Youtooz [link] [comments] |
2020.10.08 19:08 ihatelife66999990 Carter sharer got some mega glasses!
 | submitted by ihatelife66999990 to MatthiasSubmissions [link] [comments] |
2020.09.09 03:23 MistaForehead Carter Sharer lol
 | submitted by MistaForehead to commentary [link] [comments] |
2020.08.24 16:31 EndersGame_Reviewer Interview with world record playing card thrower Rick Smith Jr
 | Who is Rick Smith Jr? submitted by EndersGame_Reviewer to playingcards [link] [comments] When you're an entertainer, you need to find something that makes you stand out from the rest of the pack. This is also true for performers in the magic industry. With magic man Rick Smith Jr, it's easy to see that he has what it takes to stand out from your run-of-the-mill magician. To begin with, Rick has three Guiness World Records. But it's not just that Rick Smith Jr is a world record holder that makes you sit up and take notice, but it's especially the kinds of records that he holds. Rick is an expert in throwing playing cards, and holds the record for the furthest distance ever thrown with an ordinary playing card. But that's just one of the ways he's made headlines with his card throwing skills. He's also developed an incredible accuracy with his card throwing, and his insane skills have seen him hit the big time in a "trick shots" collaboration with Dude Perfect, which features his card throwing. The video went viral, and at the time of writing it has around 150 million views! In the summer of 2020 he made a return visit to Dude Perfect, the result being this latest video with even more amazing stunts. With his unique fusion of magic and card throwing, Rick Smith Jr is in high demand around the world. He's performed on television many times, for some of the biggest names in the business. Each year he does more than 600 shows for a steady stream of clients, who want to bring his exciting brand of magic and card throwing to their homes, businesses, and events. With a background in marketing, Rick is well placed to serve the needs of corporate customers, while entertaining them with an unforgettable performance at the same time. Rick has been amazing audiences for around 20 years, and with his remarkable skills and talents, he knows how to use playing cards in a way that few others do. We're grateful that he was willing to do this interview with us, giving us the opportunity to get a unique insight look at his world, and get some helpful pointers for taking our playing cards to the next level - literally! https://preview.redd.it/wws902ypnyi51.jpg?width=500&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=4de4d669ebd8071ae5d6ada39bff6b564f3dac21 THE INTERVIEW GENERAL BACKGROUND For those who don't know anything about you, what can you tell us about yourself and your background? Well, I've been performing magic for over 30 years. I perform close to 600 magic shows a year right now, with my card-throwing being a niche of my act. So I'm not just a card thrower, but I am a professional entertainer. I was an NCAA pitcher in college, and I developed my strength of my card throwing by throwing a baseball 90-plus miles per hour. What can you tell us about the Guinness World Records you have set? I have three Guinness Book world records for throwing playing cards. My first world record was set in 2002, for throwing a playing card 72 yards at a speed of 92 miles per hour. My other two world records were set in 2015 and 2017, one for throwing a card the most accurate, which was 46 out of 52 cards to a target in under a minute. The other world record was for throwing the highest, which was 70 feet and some odd inches straight up in the air. What does a typical day or month in the life of Rick Smith Jr look like? Typically, I have been a prize for a fundraising company for the past ten years. I would perform three school shows during the week, Monday through Friday. My weekends, I would travel. I would perform for different companies and corporations around the world, and the school tour thing lasted for ten years. There was 400 shows a year. An average day: I'll try to come up with some new material, perform the shows, post on social media, and hang out with family and friends when I can. I work a lot. What are some of your interests and hobbies outside of magic and throwing playing cards? Going to sporting events. I was a baseball player, and we're from Cleveland, so we go to different Cleveland Indian games. I played baseball up until a couple years ago, after I had an elbow injury, where I had to have surgery, which was both baseball and card-throwing-related. So I gave up baseball. Also four-wheeling, hanging out with family, cooking on the grill - those are my hobbies right now. Aside from your world records, what would you consider to be your biggest accomplishments, and things you're most proud of? I guess my girls. I have a three-year-old, Aubrey, and I have a five-year-old, Averie. Having kids now, it's changed my life. When I'm not performing, I'm going to dance recitals and taking them for swimming lessons and Little Gym and getting them into sports and baseball and soccer and basketball. So I'm spending a lot of my time with those two, and there's one more on the way in August. So it's going to change my life even more, coming up. https://preview.redd.it/ph6s5qkqnyi51.jpg?width=400&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f56f9abffcc827f20d09adeacc178406926819c9 THROWING PLAYING CARDS Throwing playing cards looks amazing, but why should we learn how to do it? You don't have to learn how to do it. It's just something fun to do. Being able to be at a party and being able to take a playing card and be like, "Hey, let me slice that celery in half" - that's something that I do that no one in the world has ever commonly done. It made me unique as a performer. I used my baseball background to be able to throw the cards so far, and the accuracy just came with practice. People kept asking me to do different types of challenges, and I kept on testing my abilities. Sooner or later, I was slicing olives being thrown up in the air or taking a cup off of somebody's head or slicing a vegetable in half. So if you want to learn it, it's just a cool skill to have. It's not going to make you any money, unless you devote your life to it and add it to something that you love to do. Since I loved to be a magician, I wasn't going to make a living off just throwing cards. It was more of a hobby, and wasn't something that I was like, "Oh, this is going to be my job. I'm going to be a card thrower." It just became something that I can showcase in my magic acts, which made my magic acts more popular, which made me more money. How difficult is it to learn how to throw playing cards for the average person? The average person can learn how to throw a playing card fairly quickly, with the right technique, the right hold, the right flick of the wrist. Anyone can throw a playing card, just like anyone can throw an object. Everyone can play a piano and can play Mary Had a Little Lamb, but not everyone can play Beethoven. So if you want to get good with it and confident with it, you're just going to have to keep practicing it. Doing it well is not something that you're just going to be able to do instantly. It's going to take years of throwing and figuring out what the cards can do and what they can't do. Once you realize what they can do, then you can create the trick shots that you want to create. What else can you tell us about the process involved in setting your first Guinness World Record for card throwing? The story with the first world record, the distance world record, comes down to the baseball locker room. In the locker room, before practices, we would goof around. I would perform magic for some of the guys in the locker room. But we would also roll up our socks and throw them across the room and try to hit people. One day, I got hit with a sock, and I didn't have a sock to throw back, so I grabbed out my deck of cards and took out one playing card, threw it, and gave one of my buddies the worst paper cut of his life. I thought they were going to be mad, but they thought it was the coolest thing that they've ever seen. So we practiced throwing a couple cards in the locker room, and that was it for that day. The next day, one of the other teammates brings in a Guinness Book of World Records. He goes, "Hey, there's actually a Guinness world record for throwing playing cards, 201 feet, and it's held by this magician guy named Jim Carroll. I bet you can beat it." So we called up Guinness World Records. We called up every local news station, every newspaper, everything that you could do. In the year 2002, there was no social media, no YouTube, or anything of that caliber. So if you wanted to get it out there, you went to Associated Press. We went to the Plain Dealer, the News Herald. Basically, we told everybody we were going to break this world record for throwing a playing card, and we had no idea if people were going to show up or not. What response did you get to your world record attempt and afterwards? Guinness showed up. Every single news station showed up. Every newspaper showed up. It took about 30 throws because of the air flow in the room, but after I broke the world record, I made the front page of the Plain Dealer. It went to Associated Press and it went viral before viral was a thing. Every news station, newspaper, radio station in the world was contacting me and asking me, "What did you do?" This wasn't even a stunt, and it wasn't even "Can you slice something in half?" This was just throwing a playing card 72 yards! It had nothing to do with anything other than throwing a card a long distance. But the following day, I was in class in college all day after this stuff got published, not knowing what was going on. And all of the voicemails were like, "Hi, this is the Tonight Show with Jay Leno. Please give us a call back." "Hey, this is so-and-so from Ripley's Believe It or Not. Give us a call back." "Hey, this is the Steve Harvey Show. We're doing a TV show called Steve Harvey's Big Time. We'd love for you to be a part of it. Please give us a call back." "Hi, this is the Wayne Brady Show, blah blah blah." I had voicemails from London, BBC, radio, so many different places. I was doing interviews like crazy. That's how I got into the card-throwing. It was all a mistake. It was all from throwing a sock, to throwing a playing card, to giving the kid the worst cut of his life, to finding out there was a world record, to breaking the world record, and then getting contacted by media all around the world. It's crazy. How did your other two Guinness World Records for card throwing come about? For the other record, I went on this local station in Cleveland - FOX 8 - and I said, "Hey, I'd like to break a world record." They were like, "Hey, why don't you break it on our show?" So it was just a morning segment. It wasn't anything crazy, and I broke the world record on the segment. I didn't get any press out of it, other than FOX 8 in the morning. I broke the world record, and sent it to Guinness. They approved it, and I got my plaque. I broke the record for the height on Pi Day, and we ended up getting thousands of people to show up at the Great Lakes Science Center in Cleveland, Ohio. We decided to do a magic show, as breaking the Guinness Book world record. I stood at the bottom floor of the science center and hit the ceiling of the science center, and we had people from different news stations there, as well as Plain Dealer, again. It didn't go viral or anything, and no one seemed to care, other than, "Hey, it's just the new world record." But it was an accomplishment. It was right after another surgery that I had on a piece of bone that was in my elbow that I broke that world record. Do you have your eye on any other records, or do you have any plans to beat the ones you currently hold? I was supposed to. In April, I was supposed to go to Italy to break a world record for the most cards thrown around a human in under a minute. That's on hold due to the world situation right now. What can you tell us about your baseball background, and how has this impacted your ability in throwing playing cards? My training and ability to pitch is the only reason I could throw cards so well. If you want to break the world record, it's possible, and I could teach you how to throw a playing card. But the only way that someone's going to be able to break my world record is they can throw a baseball 90 miles an hour plus. You could flick a card as hard as you want, but if you don't have that arm speed and that power from your legs and your body to be able to throw a baseball 92 miles an hour, there's no way in the world that you're going to get enough power behind your playing card. I broke the world record in my peak of NCAA baseball. So if I teach a Major League Baseball pitcher how to do it, I can see that they would have a fair chance. But no one's going to break the record unless they're an NCAA athlete or higher. I just don't see it happening. Not to be cocky about it - I'm just saying it's going to be hard. That day I was warming up by throwing a ball, and then I broke the world record. The world record has to be set indoors. It has to be set with no wind flow. We had to shut all the air conditioners off. We had to shut all the doors. There was no air flow, and it was weird, because when I first did go break the world record, I kept on throwing 200 feet, 199 feet. It kept on stopping, and then we ended up switching sides, because there was still an air flow, like some kind of vent. We switched sides, and I broke the world record the second or third throw after that. It hit the bleachers and bounced back 15 feet. So maybe I could've thrown it a little further, but Guinness took the world record from where the card landed, not where it hit. Are there particularly memorable experiences you've had with your card throwing for TV shows? America's Got Talent, the Tonight Show, and Shark Tank were probably my favorite TV shows to appear on. On Shark Tank I was able to perform magic as well as my card-throwing stunts, and it was on a major TV network at a prime time. So they got my magic and my card-throwing out in one episode. America's Got Talent was one of the bigger stages that I got to perform on. I never got X'ed, and a lot of people watch that show, so that was another fun one to get recognized from. There were other shows that were fun to be on, like the Tonight Show. They all just have different audiences, and have different reasons for being the best show at the time. With the Ellen DeGeneres show, I got to throw cards with Ellen, and it was a timeframe and different audience that I'd never reached before. The Tonight Show is just a late night show audience, college kids, and was also another group that I'd never reached. I have a lot of favorite TV shows. Even on Ripley's Believe It or Not, the first show I ever performed on, I was treated like gold. They flew me to Vegas to film in front of thousands of people, and I got to do stunts for the very first time, ever. I did thinks that I'd never done before for the very first time on TV, and that was so memorable. Of the many videos online in which you appear, which is your favourite one, and why? With YouTube channels I've been able to work with some of the best YouTubers in the world. When I did the first Card Throwing Trick Shots video with Dude Perfect, the video went viral. It trended in the number one spot on YouTube for an entire day. It had over 20 million views in the first week, and we're over 137 million views now. They got card-throwing out to the biggest audience in the fastest amount of time, and made me the most recognizable around the world for the age group of kids. Kids would recognize me anywhere I'd go, non-magic-related, just because they're huge Dude Perfect fans. But Dude Perfect led into other big collaborations with Mark Rober, the mechanical engineer from NASA; with David Dobrik, going to his house and performing trick shots with all of his friends, and with Florian "Venom" Kohler, the pool trick shot artist from Las Vegas. And there's a whole bunch of others: Carter Sharer, Juggling Josh, Logan Broadbent, the Slow Mo Guys, the Modern Rogue, and Scam Nation. All of these other YouTube channels have just totally launched my YouTube career; I thought that I would have reached 300 million people in such a short amount of time. What impact did these viral videos have on your career? I have been able to charge higher fees and I have been more in demand. I've got some of the biggest shows of my life since then. I've been able to travel to other countries and do my card-throwing and magic in places that I never thought possible. I've had a few agents ask to hire me for different events. I've done just card-throwing shows, even if they were only ten minutes long. At times I been paid more to do a ten-minute card-throwing show than for my Las Vegas-style magic show! So yes, it has gotten me out there, and the demand right after that video was so great that I couldn't handle all the shows. I started working with other magicians and people in my area, and we developed a really good entertainment agency ourselves called the Cleveland Entertainers, where we book different entertainers. When leads come in and I can't fulfill them personally, we say: "Rick's not available, but we have so-and-so that would be a good fit for your party." It is another way to make some extra money, but it also gives a lot of friends in my network some extra shows that they didn't have coming. How many takes does it typically take you to accomplish the kinds of feats we see you do in viral videos like your first video with Dude Perfect and others? Dude Perfect took place in one and a half days. The first day, we started at 11 and ended at 5. The second day we started at 11 and ended at 1:30 or 2:30, because I had to fly back. Most of the trick shots were fast, and didn't take a long time at all. The only thing that took time in between each trick shot was setting up the cameras. The trick shots that you would think would be the hardest to take place, like the olive slicer where Cody would throw the olive up in the air and I would slice it in half? A lot of people say "That had to take you all day," but I can honestly do that one out of every six throws. I probably cut that olive six or seven times, just to get the right and perfect camera angle that we needed for that shot. Making a basket from a full court? Some people say, "Oh that probably took you all day." Believe it or not, that was my second throw. It happened, and we were done with it. We had set aside 20 minutes to do that shot, but I did it within the first minute. No one would believe what was the hardest shot of that whole video. It would be the balloon that was hanging on the second level, and I was standing below, and had to throw the card upwards and pop the balloon hanging about 50 feet away. That was the hardest shot of the whole video, because I had to throw upwards at an angle, and I had to hit the balloon, and I had to pop it. So that one probably took the longest - I think we worked on it for 20 minutes. Then we went to lunch, and we came back. Right after lunch, we were about to give up, and then I got it. So 20 or 25 minutes was the longest we spent on any trick shot in that video. But a lot of them were first or second try. What instructional videos have you produced that we should know about? If you want to learn some magic and some card-throwing, I have a free tutorial and some more tutorials on my YouTube channel. I also have some behind the scenes of the card-throwing and some in-depth training on a DVD called Velocity, which is available on my website. What's the worst injury you've experienced as a result of throwing playing cards? I would say it was the elbow. I tore the UCL in the elbow, and I had to have that replaced. The first time was with a cadaver and that broke. Then the second time, they took my hamstring from my left leg, and they built it into my right arm. They did a figure eight twice to strengthen that ligament strong enough so when I threw a card or ball or whatever I was throwing, I wouldn't tear that ligament again. But that puts you out six months. I still could do magic and card throwing, but I did it with my other arm. What do you think the worst damage a playing card could do if you threw it at someone? It can definitely give you a paper cut, that's for sure. I think that's the worst thing you could do. I don't think you're going to kill somebody with a playing card, but you can definitely make somebody bleed. You can definitely stick a card into somebody, if you throw it hard enough. But it'll give you the worst paper cut of your life, so I recommend you don't throw at people, even though I've done it to friends of mine. If you're going to have your card battle, you're going to want to have glasses or a welder's mask. I have a gauntlet glove. I give people Styrofoam targets to put on, the UFC gloves with targets put onto them. So if I'm doing this in a live show, people are 100% protected, and nothing is going to happen to them. What advice would you give to someone who is interested in learning how to do card throwing for fun? If you want to learn how to throw cards for fun, I would just say hop onto my YouTube channel. Check out the different tutorials. Grab some Styrofoam targets, some playing cards, and practice throwing them. What can you tell us about the card-throwing competition at your shows? I have a card-throwing competition now that is live for anybody that wants to come to one of my shows, offering $1,000 if they can hit a target three times in a row and stick their cards into the target. People come up, and whoever throws a playing card the farthest gets to throw three cards into the target. I demonstrate that it's possible right in front of them, and then I give them the same three cards, or three new cards, depending on what they want, and let them try to throw the cards as well. If they do it, they win the money. If not, they get other prizes. They can win a deck of cards, they can win $100, or they can win the grand prize of $1,000. It's usually done live, in front of hundreds of thousands of people. No one's won yet, but I've given a couple hundred dollars away, and I've given probably 15 decks of cards away for people that have stuck one card into the target. I've had a couple good kids out there that are ready to take my money. https://preview.redd.it/liaxo8ftnyi51.jpg?width=500&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a1f3a423fd6184a6d0b7b134140a965177344dbc PLAYING CARDS Should we use old playing cards for practicing our card throwing? I'm pretty much a diva when it comes to playing cards, and I've used Bicycle playing cards my entire life. I'll probably use them forever for practice. But once I throw a playing card and it gets bent, I can't throw it again. The accuracy and precision comes with a perfectly non-touched playing card. Once oil is on our hands or once the card gets crinkled or once it gets bent or the heat hits it and it starts warping a little bit, I can't throw those cards accurately. So I would say you can practice throwing or get the technique down with old playing cards. But if you're going to try a trick shot, to have the accuracy and precision that they're looking for, you're going to have to go buy a brand-new deck, never touched by a human. What type of playing cards did you first use when you started card throwing and magic? I typically use Bicycle playing cards. I've been a Bicycle fan since I broke the world record in 2002. For magic I always thought Bicycle playing cards were cards that didn't look like trick cards. They look like the standard deck that everybody has, so when performing magic with them, people didn't think it wasn't a trick deck. What playing cards do you use for card throwing today? I still throw Bicycle playing cards, but I had special cards when I worked with De'Vo. When he created the Chrome Kings, I thought those would be a really good card to use because of how they looked in slow motion. I started collaborating with De'Vo as much as I could, because the cards that he created were always different than anything else that I saw on the market. He put a lot of work into it, and I used a lot of his different decks on different TV shows when doing card-throwing appearances. People would see those cards, and they got a lot of interest, and they would say things like "Oh, those are really sick-looking cards" or "They look really cool in slow motion." So I ended up collecting every single deck that De'Vo has created, and I have them hanging in my office on a nice plaque. We've been friends for years, and he finally said, maybe two years ago, "Let's create a deck of cards just for you." So we created the Falcons, and that's what I have now. That's what I've been selling and giving away and promoting for the last year now. What playing cards have you personally been involved with producing? I developed the whistle for the Banshee throwing playing cards. Banshees were created by Murphy's Magic, while the whistle was created by me. So Banshees and Banshees Advanced are playing cards that you can throw that have a measuring system. I used the Chrome Kings that De'Vo developed for most of the first video for Dude Perfect. In my second collaboration video, I used my new Falcons, which have a gold and silver edition. We just released a cool Kickstarter for the Falcon Razor deck. Do you need a special deck of cards like the Banshees or Chrome Kings for card throwing? A brand new Bicycle-quality card is fine. I use all the different cards for different reasons. The Chrome Kings looked amazing in slow motion, and I liked the way that they looked. When we used 10,000 frames per second, it looked like a blade was coming right at the vegetable that I was throwing at. The Banshees were heavier, so when I did the long distance bottle-breaker on Dude Perfect, the Banshee card was the thickest card I had at the time that was strong enough to be able to break the sugar glass. The Falcon throwing cards which De'Vo and I created last year are a little bit thicker, the thickest stock that USPC has ever printed on. So my Falcon deck is the only deck that is printed on that stock, which gives it an edge over other cards, because they are a little bit heavier than your typical Bicycle playing card. Bicycle cards are perfect to practice with. I've used them to break my Guinness Book world record. I feel that if someone wanted to break a world record for distance, that they would need to use a card like the Bicycle playing cards and not a Falcon playing card, because a Falcon would almost be considered cheating, because it's definitely a heavier card, and the heavier card will definitely throw farther than your typical card. What are some of the other qualities we should know about your personal Falcon Throwing Cards? There's a marking system on them, not for magic, but for card-throwing. There's a star measuring system for how far you would throw a card into a target. There are gimmicks that are built with the silver Falcons and the gold foil of the gold Falcons. There's a double backer in the silver Falcons. There's two Jokers with a gimmick card, where you can force a card in the falcon's talons for the regular deck. Then there's a new reveal card in the new silver edition. Other than that, it looks almost like a blade when you're throwing them in slow motion, so they look pretty cool when you hit them with the high-speed camera. What playing cards do you use for performing magic? My magic deck is still Bicycle. I still prefer them over any other deck that I've used for performing magic, unless I'm at a really high-end event and I want to have a fancy deck of cards. I will browse my collection and grab one of De'Vo's earlier decks. I'm not against other companies though, and I have decks from David Blaine, Art of Play, and Theory 11. I probably have thousands different decks of cards, if not more. Some decks of cards, other magicians give to me. Some decks of cards, I've received as gifts. So I like playing cards all around. Are you a playing card collector at all yourself, and if so, what can you share about your personal collection? I have a lot of decks of cards, but I don't have all the rare decks. I have never got into collecting like some of my friends who are professional card collectors. I do have some rare decks, like some decks from World War I and II. And I have lots of the different Bicycle brand decks. But my biggest collection is De'Vo's collection. That was the one series of cards that I wanted to make sure that I had every deck. So I do. https://preview.redd.it/78sbowawnyi51.jpg?width=500&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=666063acc1285b931c29b0698bb71d1e5ed3f03a CONCLUSION There's no doubt that Rick Smith Jr is a unique individual with a remarkable set of talents. He has shaped himself into an entertainer like no other. His path to the record-setting top has been shaped by a few key events, especially his baseball background, his first world record, and his Dude Perfect collaboration video. But he's also not afraid of hard work, as his busy schedule of 600+ shows a year makes clear. He's honed and polished his craft, enabling him to do things with playing cards that nobody else in the world can do. But even if we're not about to contest Rick Smith Jr for his world records, that doesn't mean we can't have fun with playing cards in unusual ways. So why not grab a deck of playing cards and give card throwing a shot yourself! Where to learn more? Check out Rick Smith Jr's resources here: - Rick Smith Jr: Official site, Magic Store, Magic Gives Back - Social media: Facebook, Twitter, TikTok, Instagram, Youtube - Videos: Promo video, Card Throwing Highlights - Dude Perfect videos: Card Throwing Trick Shots, Card Throwing Trick Shots 2 - Tutorials: Free Card Throwing Tutorial, Velocity DVD - Custom decks: Falcon Razor, Falcon Throwing Cards, Chrome Kings, De'vo Cardistry decks https://preview.redd.it/98bs9wrynyi51.jpg?width=500&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=1cad39c24930a6888c4f10658aa20fb110f7d3a0 Author's note: I first published this article at PlayingCardDecks here. |
2020.08.16 18:36 sentient_garlicbread Something fun to think of.
Say if sites like YouTube, Twitch, Instagram, and/or Tiktok didn't exist. And where certain people would be. Take for example people like Azzyland, Markiplier, Rosanna Pansino, or hell Carter Sharer. They all studied or graduated with very beneficial degrees that can get you far in life. Compared to the talentless channels like Infinite Lists, Alinity, and even Pokimane. If it weren't for the internet they wouldn't even be known. They'd have dead end jobs like the rest of us.
Again this is one of those hypothetical cases of look at someone/thing, and think what if they weren't where they were.
submitted by sentient_garlicbread to teenagers [link] [comments]
Again this is one of those hypothetical cases of look at someone/thing, and think what if they weren't where they were.
2020.08.01 13:30 hunter15991 An Overview of Arizona Primary Races - Part 4: Legislative Districts 11-20
Welcome back to my omnibus compendium of Arizonaâs upcoming primary races in the style of my 2018 summaries. The primary is set to take place August 4th â early voting ballots should have been mailed out on or around July 8th.
Arizonaâs a really interesting state (I may be a hair biased), since it not only is home to 2-3 swing House seats and a high-profile Senate race, but also tenuous majorities in both state houses that could â theoretically â neuter Duceyâs trifecta this fall. And counties have their races this year as well, so Iâve highlighted some of the fireworks ongoing in Maricopa.
And this is before factoring in the fact that our state is a COVID-19 hotspot, with an unpopular Republican Governor doing almost nothing to stop it.
If youâre interested about which district you live in, check https://azredistricting.org/districtlocato. If you want to get involved with your local Democratic party, find your legislative district on the previous link (NOT CD), and then search for your LDâs name at this link. Feel free to attend meetings, theyâre a great way to get involved with candidates and like-minded individuals.
If you wish to donate to a âclean electionsâ candidate (mentioned in the post as âcleanâ), you will have to live in that candidateâs legislative district to give qualifying $5 contributions (check here if anyone needs it in your area), but they are allowed to accept a limited amount of âseed moneyâ from people outside of the district. The three CorpComm candidates can take $5âs statewide.
If you do not want to vote at the polls, you will need to request an early ballot using the website of your countyâs recorder prior to July 4th. Example links for Maricopa, Pima, and Pinal. Others available if needed.
Race ratings for listed primaries will be listed as Safe/Likely/Leans/Tilt/Tossup (alternatively Solid instead of Safe if my mind blanks) and are not indicative of my own preference for that seat. Iâll denote my personal primary preferences at the end of this series, as well as the best Republican ticket for the Dems if someone here really really wants to pull a GOP ballot in the primary. I do not advise it, but since I can't stop ya, you'll get my best suggestions.
Write-in candidates have yet to file, which could give us an outside chance at getting some Libertarians on the ballot (the Greens have lost their ballot access).
If you have any questions about voting in the primary, which races are the most contested, and how to get involved with other Democrats in Arizona, feel free to PM me.
All fundraising numbers here are as of 7/18/2020 (âQ2â).
District stats are listed for the race that involved the top Democratic vote-getter in the past two midterm cycles plus the last two presidential races, taken from Daily Kosâs legislative sheet â Clintonâ16, Obamaâ12, Sinemaâ18, and Garciaâ14 (not his 2018 run).
Part 1: Statewide and Congressional Races
Part 2: Maricopa County Races
Update 1: Congressional and County Rating Updates
Part 3: Legislative Districts 1-10
ALL OPINIONS ARE MY OWN SOLELY IN MY CAPACITY AS A VOTER IN ARIZONA, AND NOT REPRESENTATIVE OF ANY ORGANIZATIONS I WORK/ED FOR OR AM/WAS A MEMBER OF. THIS POST IS IN NO WAY ENDORSED BY THE ARIZONA DEMOCRATIC PARTY OR ANY SUB-ORGANIZATION THEREOF, OR ANY FILED CANDIDATE.
Alright, letâs get cracking, yâall. Iâm going to try to save time and characters on the safer seats when I can, although of course Iâll expound on any fun stuff that comes up.
Legislative District 11 (McSally+9.93, Trump+13.9, Douglas+16.7, Romney+19.3)
The first district in this writeup installment is LD11, a district very close geographically and politically to LD8. Unlike LD8, however, LD11 has slowly been trending towards Democrats, instead of away from them. Encompassing the southern half of Pinal (including a large chunk of Casa Grande) and bits of Pima, LD11 could swing under the right conditions, but is probably a safe seat this year. Thatâs disappointing, since the incumbents in the district are pretty darn nasty.
Incumbent Senator Venden âVinceâ Leach ($98K COH), a sort-of Great Value Mitch McConnell, loves to spend his time filing SB1487 complaints against various liberal towns in Arizona â basically, suing cities over their attempts to go above and beyond state law when it comes to certain issues. Leach leads the SB1487 leaderboard with 4 SB1487 suits, most recently targeting Pima County over COVID-19 safety regulations that were slightly stricter than state law. Joining the suit were his House counterparts, COVID-19 conspiracy-monger Bret Roberts ($22.4K COH) and actual goddamn Oathkeeper and Charlottesville truther Mark Finchem ($27K COH).
Facing Finchem and Roberts is the Democratic House nominee for LD11, Dr. Felipe Perez ($24.2K COH). Perez has made few waves online and I havenât seen him even in the same tier of candidates as Girard in LD8, so heâs probably not going to supercharge this district into Dem. territory. But given the spike in public approval for the healthcare industry due to COVID, he may get lucky. On the Senate side, Leachâs opponent will be one of retired public administrator Linda Patterson ($4.7K COH, Clean) and Marine drill instructor Joanna Mendoza ($14.5K COH). Anything could happen between now and August, but Mendoza currently has a significant organizational, political (endorsements) and fiscal advantage over Patterson, and will probably be the nominee come August.
A well-run race could feasibly knock out Finchem or Roberts, but Iâve yet to see that happen. Still, itâs far out enough that Iâm not going to slam the door shut on a Perez win just yet.
hunter15991 Rating: GOP primary unopposed, Safe Mendoza, Perez unopposed, Safe Leach, Safe Roberts, Likely Finchem general
Legislative District 12 (McSally+17.19, Trump+24.5, Douglas+17.84, Romney+33.35)
Really not going to focus much on this district to save space, as itâs a snoozefest. House Majority Leader Warren Petersen ($84.8K COH) is running for Senate to replace outgoing Sen. Eddie Farnsworth. Petersen faces Haitian DREAMer. former teacher, and 2018 LD-12 House nominee Lynsey Robinson ($1.4K COH). Robinsonâs a great person, but lost her House race against Petersen by the 1v1 equivalent of 20 points, and shows no sign of knocking him off this time around.
Petersenâs runningmates, Rep. Travis Grantham ($39K COH) and Queen Creek Councilman Jake Hoffman ($107.7K COH) are unopposed in both the primary and general.
hunter15991 Rating: Primaries all unopposed, Safe Petersen general, GOP House unopposed
Legislative District 13 (McSally+21.59, Trump+26.96, Douglas+26.22, Romney+31.62)
Moving on to another Safe GOP district with not much activity â LD13! Stretching from the whiter Yuma neighborhoods all the way to Phoenix exurbs in Maricopa County (and the mirror image of LD4 to its south), LD13 routinely sends Republican slates to the legislature. This year, incumbents Sen. Sine Kerr ($58.5K COH), Rep. Tim Dunn ($60.4K COH), and Rep. Joanne Osborne ($15K COH) are all fighting to hold their seats.
Kerr is unopposed in both the primary and general, while Dunn and Osborne are in the opposite situation â theyâve got two elections between now and inauguration day. Democratic paralegal Mariana Sandoval ($3.1K COH, Clean) will put up little resistance for the GOP in the general, but the entrance of former Senator and former Speaker Pro Tem Steve Montenegro ($27.8K COH) could really shake up the LD13 House primary. Montenegro, a Salvadoran-American legislator who resigned his Senate seat to run for the CD-8 special election primary (he placed 3rd, ultimately losing to then-Sen. Debbie Lesko), was a rising star in the AZ-GOP before his resignation and contemporaneous sexting scandal. This Senate run could be a good way for him to get his foot back in the door, and since his election would single-handedly double the amount of non-white Republicans in the legislator, I would figure that some Arizona Republicans are excited that Montenegro is throwing his hat back into the ring.
I havenât seen much about this primary online, but thereâs vague general on GOP pages dinging Montenegro for his ties to a 2016 National Popular Vote bill in the legislature, which is a big purity sticking point for the further-right members of the Arizona GOP. That being said, the chatter is vague at best, and Montenegro has enough conservative cred (with endorsements from people like Joe Arpaio and former Rep. Trent Franks back during his special election run) that he will primarily face issues over the sexting scandal.
Iâll give Osborne and Dunn a slight advantage over their incumbency, financial well-being, and the issues in Montenegroâs closet, but this is a really tight race and Montenegro could very well end up back in the legislature this time next year.
hunter15991 Rating: Dem. unopposed, Kerr unopposed, Tilt Osborne, Tilt Dunn, All Safe GOP general
Legislative District 14 (McSally+23.83, Trump+26.24, Douglas+22.88, Romney+26.84)
This is yet another district where Democrats stand no real chance in competing this year, and havenât in quite some time. Situated in SE Arizona, LD14 once incorporated some ancestrally Democratic mining towns in Greenlee and Graham County, but theyâve grown red enough in the past couple of decades that this district is now held by three GOP legislators.
Former House Speaker and current Sen. David Gowan ($60.9K COH) (who was previously in the news for trying to use a state vehicle to assist in a failed Congressional campaign) faces realtor Bob Karp ($12.9K COH, Clean) in the general, while House incumbents Rep. Gail âTax porn to build the wallâ Griffinâ ($50.5K COH) and Rep. Becky Nutt ($47.4K COH) face retired union activist Ronnie Maestas-Condos ($686 COH, Clean) and teacher Kim Beach-Moschetti ($13K COH, Clean). All 3 races will probably be easy GOP wins.
hunter15991 Rating: Candidates unopposed in primaries, All Safe GOP general
Legislative District 15 (McSally+8.01, Trump+16.61, Douglas+11.06, Romney+25.44)
LD15, up in Northern Scottsdale and Phoenix, is one of the final frontiers of suburban expansion for Arizona Democrats, along with the Mormon suburbs of the far East Valley (LD12, 16, and 25). A very wealthy area, LD15 has routinely been a GOP stronghold â but their hold on the area has been dissipating steadily rapidly in the Trump era. In 2018, two Dem. House candidates both managed to outperform the âsingle-shotâ performance of a 2016 candidate, and Kristin Dybvig-Pawelko ($48.6K COH, hereafter âKDPâ) improved on the districtâs 2016 State Senate margin by several points despite facing a significantly more difficult opponent than the 2016 Democrat.
KDP is running again this year, as a single-shot candidate for the State House. Her opponents have yet to be set in stone, as both GOP Representatives are vacating their seats to run for higher office, and there are three GOP candidates in the August primary vying for two nominations. Veteran Steve Kaiser ($13.6K COH) and State House policy adviser Justin Wilmeth ($16K COH, $5.2K self-funded) are the nominal establishment picks for both seats, and have been endorsed by a whole host of GOP legislators. However, they face stiff competition from businessman Jarret Hamstreet ($23.2K COH, $10K self-funded), who boasts endorsements from GOP power-players like the local Chamber of Commerce and the NRA, as well as tacit support from the incumbent Senator in the district Heather Carter ($101.2K COH) (somewhat of an Arizona Lisa Murkowski). Iâve been able to find very little chatter on the race, but with Hamstreetâs significant fundraising advantage I definitely think he secures one of the two nominations this November. While the district is still quite red, KDP is no spring chicken, and facing Kasier, Hamstreet, or Wilmeth will be a lot easier than her run against Carter in 2018.
If Iâm going to be honest, it is the GOP Senate primary that is almost as important as the House general election. Heather Carter has gotten on the bad side of quite a few conservative legislators during her tenure in the Senate, holding up GOP budgets with her partner in crime Paul Boyer in 2019 over a stalled child sexual assault statute of limitations bill and this year over an amendment to give additional funding to firefighters for PPE and to students for tuition support.
That amendment failed 15-15 thanks to one Kate Brophy McGee - more on her later.
Carterâs actual attempts at moderation (as opposed to McGeeâs performative bullshit) has inspired current State Rep. Nancy Barto ($9.9K COH) to challenge her for the Senate. Barto has the support of both Kaiser and Wilmeth (as well as most of the GOP establishment) but has been routinely lagging behind Carter in fundraising (both in terms of current COH and overall amount raised). Carter has been bringing in more âmoderateâ and pro-public education GOP volunteers from all over Phoenix and is sure to put up a fight in August. As it stands, I think she narrowly pulls it off. There is no Democratic Senate opponent in the general, so winning the primary automatically wins the seat.
If youâve got GOP friends in AZ who just canât bare phonebanking for Democratic candidates but complain about the state of the Republican party, send them her way.
Carter has beliefs. Barto has none.
Slate totals:
Legislative District 16 (McSally+17.58, Trump+28.37, Douglas+17, Romney+28.11)
LD16, out on the border between Pinal and Maricopa County, is probably the reddest district in Arizona that could still be relatively considered âsuburbanâ. The only Democratic candidate is write-in House candidate Rev. Helen Hunter ($783 COH), and while her background is stellar (incl. past work with the NAACP, Mesa PDâs Use of Force Committee, and other community involvement), there isnât even a guarantee sheâll make it onto the November ballot.
Meanwhile, Rep. Kelly Townsend ($15.5K COH) has tired of the State House (just like she tired of her furry fursona, and is running unopposed for State Senate.
The real drama, therefore, is in the GOP State House primary to win Townsendâs old seat. Incumbent Rep. John Fillmore ($12.9K COH) is running for another term, and seems set to win one of the two nominations. Townsendâs former seat is contested by respiratory therapist Liza Godzich ($14.6K COH) (who wins the âmost moderateâ title by default by virtue of taking COVID kinda seriously), CorpComm policy advisor Jacqueline Parker ($16.4K COH), and school choice activist/general lunatic Forest Moriarty ($17.7K COH).
Moriarty has the valuable Townsend endorsement, but has not been able to consolidate support easily elsewhere â Parkerâs CorpComm ties let her bring quite a few assets of her own to bear, as well as endorsements from Congressman Andy Biggs and the NRA.
This election will be a test of Townsendâs downballot coattails, as well as those of the school choice movement in AZ parlaying any support they may have into legislative results. Success for Moriarty here could go as far as inspiring Townsend to run for Governor. Weâll see if it comes to that.
hunter15991 Rating: No Dem. filed (pending write-in), Townsend unopposed, Lean Fillmore, Tossup ParkeMoriarty, GOP unopposed in general
Legislative District 17 (Sinema+3.53, Trump+4.09, Douglas+3.12, Romney+14.16)
One of the reasons I significantly delayed writing these writeups was because I was dreading writing about LD17. Not to doxx myself completely, but in 2018 I had far too many negative encounters with the incumbent Democratic Representative, Jennifer Pawlik ($101.3K COH) that made me routinely question my support of her. Iâm still trying to heal the wounds in multiple relationships I have with friends that were caused by Pawlikâs actions.
I deeply regret ever lifting a finger to help her when I had opportunities in other districts. But because her actions never got physical, because the stakes are so high this year, and because too much unsubstantiated negative talk about a candidate can get a post deleted - I donât wish to publicly expound on her actions (nor put words in the mouth of other people who interacted with her). Feel free to PM if interested.
Pawlik as a candidate is a grab-bag. On paper sheâd be a strong option for a suburban district â a teacher and education funding activist with a prior win during the 2018 wave. However, behind the scenes she is quite a poor campaigner in ways that directly impact Democratic candidatesâ odds and presences in the district, including her own - which makes me more apprehensive of her odds of re-election than her fellow Jennifer in HD18 (Rep. Jennifer Jermaine), whoâs quite similar to Pawlik on the whole.
Pawlikâs Senate runningmate this year is local businessman and first-generation American Ajlan âAJâ Kurdoglu ($51.5K COH). AJâs a good guy and more serious of a campaigner than Pawlik, and is on well enough terms with her that no inter-candidate drama will probably happen this fall (which would be a welcome change for the district). Heâs been slightly outpacing her in fundraising and seems to be hitting the ground running.
The Republican incumbents in this district are Sen. JD Mesnard ($102.6K COH), who moonlights as legal counsel for an organization categorized as a hate group by the SPLC, and Jeff Wenninger ($117.8K COH), a backbench Bitcoin bro. Wenninger and Mesnard have both been in their seats for a while, and this cycle were backing Chandler Vice Mayor (and JD Mesnardâs mom) Nora Ellen for the other State House seat â Ellen lost to Pawlik in 2018.
But in a stroke of luck for Pawlik, Ellen failed to qualify for the ballot this year. However, in a similar stroke of luck for the GOP Liz Harris ($27.3K COH, $21.3K self-funded) - a local realtor (like Ellen) - did qualify. Iâve yet to discern just how close she is with Mesnard and Wenninger, and how much cash she is willing to dump into this race, but in terms of how random non-GOP establishment candidates the LD17 Republicans could have done far worse than Harris.
All the pieces in this district would point to a shift even further left than it was in 2018, and had I not known what I know about Pawlik this would be a Tilt D House/Tossup Senate. But I donât know if sheâs changed since 2018 - and if she hasnât, there is no guarantee that she wonât snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
hunter15991 Rating: Primaries uncontested, Tilt Mesnard, Tossup House (Pawlik/Harris), Safe Wenninger
Legislative District 18 (Sinema+18.58, Clinton+10.39, Garcia+12.5, Romney+1.93)
Like LD10 in the previous part of my writeup, the situation in LD18 is another blast of the proverbial Gjallarhorn for the AZ-GOPâs suburban chances. Once a very competitive district (fully red as recently as 2016), LD18 is now held by 3 Democrats â Sen. Sean Bowie ($106.3K COH), Rep. Jennifer Jermaine ($65.7K COH), and Rep. Mitzi Epstein ($60.8K COH). Bowie and Epstein have carved rather moderate paths in their respective houses having been elected back when this district was more competitive, while Jermaineâs tacked a bit more to the left, and has been a prominent voice for increasing education funding (prior to running for the State House she was a public school funding activist and IIRC Moms Demand Action member) and for missing indigenous women (Jermaine is part indigenous herself).
The GOPâs troubles in this district started around the filing deadline, when one of their candidates, Alyssa Shearer, withdrew from the primary. Super anti-abortion nut Don Hawker ($619 COH) filed as a write-in candidate to replace her, but itâs uncertain if heâll qualify for the general election. Their other House candidate, Bob Robson ($11K COH) is on paper a solid candidate (being a former Speaker Pro Tem of the state house), but lost by the equivalent of 6% to Epstein in 2016 and by 19% when he ran for Kyrene Justice of the Peace (a district that roughly matches the boundaries of LD18. Robsonâs an old warhorse) - going 0 for 2 since 2014. Itâs a sign of the times that he and discount Scott Roeder are the two potential House candidates for the GOP in this district.
In the Senate, the GOP doesnât fare much better. Real estate agent Suzanne Sharer ($4.2K COH) is trying to run a semblance of a decent race against Sen. Bowie, but keeps using her campaign Twitter (@blondeandsmart â I promise you thatâs a real handle) to retweet QAnon shit. Sharer is going nowhere in November. Thatâs if she makes it to November, given her past retweets advocating for people to drink bleach to cure COVID.
hunter15991 Rating: Primaries uncontested, All Safe Dem. general
Legislative District 19 (Sinema+44.97, Clinton+40.25, Garcia+32.38, Obama+34.3)
LD19 is a safe Democratic district in the West Valley, where all the drama is happening in the primary. Rep. Lorenzo Sierra ($9.3K COH) and Rep. Diego Espinoza ($25.2K COH) are both running for re-election, defending their seats against challenger Leezah Sun ($5.1K COH), a local activist. Sierra and Espinoza havenât been particularly conservative in their voting records in the legislator, but have taken some flack from the more progressive wing of the party lately for outside corporate expenditures in this primary. Iâm honestly unsure why these PACs are weighing in given that Sun isnât running all that good of a campaign, but I guess better spend it here than in tighter primaries. Assistant State Minority Leader Lupe Contreras ($7.2K COH) is unopposed in his primary.
In the general, thereâs one GOP candidate for both House and Senate, but both are write-ins and could possibly not qualify for the ballot. For now, Democrats are unopposed in this district in the general.
hunter15991 Contreras uncontested, Safe Sierra, Safe Espinoza, Uncontested Dem. general
Legislative District 20 (Sinema+3.7, Trump+8.01, Douglas+0.04, Romney+12.87)
LD20 is another suburban district where Democrats could see sizable gains this fall. Won by Sinema and Maricopa County Recorder Adrian Fontes, and almost snagged by David Garcia during the 2014 Superintendent race, LD20 has been on the Arizona Democratic Partyâs mind for a few cycles now. Their candidates this year are strong â 2018 Senate nominee Doug Ervin ($94.6K COH) has filed for a rematch after losing by 4 in 2018 (where an independent ex-GOP candidate took 7% - Ervin claims Quelland actually hurt him more than district Republicans), and retired teacher Judy Schweibert ($158.2K COH) is running for House. Both are running bang-up campaigns and seem set to make November a problem for local Republicans, and Ervin has eschewed the public funding he took last time in order to be able to fundraise better for the slugfest ahead.
The local GOP, however, isnât taking this lying down. Representatives Shawnna Bolick ($161.8K COH) - who was almost bumped off the ballot for using a PO Box as her filing address - and Anthony Kern ($73.4K COH) - an ex-cop on the Brady âuntrustworthy copâ list - have been building their warchests in preparation for this cycle after narrowly hanging on in 2018 (despite both Democrats in that race running with public funding). While Bolick has typically stayed out of especially heinous controversy on social media (despite once posting that all masks come from Wuhan and are thus contaminated with COVID), Kernâs time on the force seems to have stuck with him, and his Twitter feed is full of a lot of pro-cop posts and whatnot. With Schweibert running as a single-shot candidate this year I can see Kernâs tendency of accidentally discharging his foot into his mouth finally coming back to bite him.
On the Senate side the past election results are slightly more promising than the House, but the opponent is tougher as well. Sen. Paul Boyer ($50.5K COH) is probably the closest there is to a living John McCain in the Arizona Legislature (not to deify him too much â heâs still conservative), having blocked two GOP budgets in the past two years along with Sen. Heather Carter (see LD15). In 2019 this was over a child sexual assault reform bill (extending the statute of limitations), and in 2020 this was over a lack of funding to firefighters and university students in the emergency âskinnyâ COVID budget the legislature passed in the spring. His attempts at moderation are visible outside of that: Boyerâs abysmal Q2 fundraising â per his own words â came from not fundraising at all during the 5 month long legislative session despite campaign finance rules only banning lobbyist contributions during the session (and I guess thatâs commendable self-policing), and on his website he stops just short of calling for abortion to be banned, which makes him Margaret fucking Sanger among the current AZ-GOP.
Thatâs not to say that people shouldnât support Ervin with all it takes â hell, if anything heâll need more help to oust Boyer. Ultimately I think Ervin holds a narrow lead in this race with the absence of Quelland and with far better fundraising than what the LD20 slate had last year, but the election is still quite far away. If I had to pick one Democrat to win in this district, itâd be Schweibert.
hunter15991 Rating: Primaries uncontested, Tilt Ervin, Tilt Schweibert, 2nd House uncontested
submitted by hunter15991 to VoteDEM [link] [comments]
Arizonaâs a really interesting state (I may be a hair biased), since it not only is home to 2-3 swing House seats and a high-profile Senate race, but also tenuous majorities in both state houses that could â theoretically â neuter Duceyâs trifecta this fall. And counties have their races this year as well, so Iâve highlighted some of the fireworks ongoing in Maricopa.
And this is before factoring in the fact that our state is a COVID-19 hotspot, with an unpopular Republican Governor doing almost nothing to stop it.
If youâre interested about which district you live in, check https://azredistricting.org/districtlocato. If you want to get involved with your local Democratic party, find your legislative district on the previous link (NOT CD), and then search for your LDâs name at this link. Feel free to attend meetings, theyâre a great way to get involved with candidates and like-minded individuals.
If you wish to donate to a âclean electionsâ candidate (mentioned in the post as âcleanâ), you will have to live in that candidateâs legislative district to give qualifying $5 contributions (check here if anyone needs it in your area), but they are allowed to accept a limited amount of âseed moneyâ from people outside of the district. The three CorpComm candidates can take $5âs statewide.
If you do not want to vote at the polls, you will need to request an early ballot using the website of your countyâs recorder prior to July 4th. Example links for Maricopa, Pima, and Pinal. Others available if needed.
Race ratings for listed primaries will be listed as Safe/Likely/Leans/Tilt/Tossup (alternatively Solid instead of Safe if my mind blanks) and are not indicative of my own preference for that seat. Iâll denote my personal primary preferences at the end of this series, as well as the best Republican ticket for the Dems if someone here really really wants to pull a GOP ballot in the primary. I do not advise it, but since I can't stop ya, you'll get my best suggestions.
Write-in candidates have yet to file, which could give us an outside chance at getting some Libertarians on the ballot (the Greens have lost their ballot access).
If you have any questions about voting in the primary, which races are the most contested, and how to get involved with other Democrats in Arizona, feel free to PM me.
All fundraising numbers here are as of 7/18/2020 (âQ2â).
District stats are listed for the race that involved the top Democratic vote-getter in the past two midterm cycles plus the last two presidential races, taken from Daily Kosâs legislative sheet â Clintonâ16, Obamaâ12, Sinemaâ18, and Garciaâ14 (not his 2018 run).
Part 1: Statewide and Congressional Races
Part 2: Maricopa County Races
Update 1: Congressional and County Rating Updates
Part 3: Legislative Districts 1-10
ALL OPINIONS ARE MY OWN SOLELY IN MY CAPACITY AS A VOTER IN ARIZONA, AND NOT REPRESENTATIVE OF ANY ORGANIZATIONS I WORK/ED FOR OR AM/WAS A MEMBER OF. THIS POST IS IN NO WAY ENDORSED BY THE ARIZONA DEMOCRATIC PARTY OR ANY SUB-ORGANIZATION THEREOF, OR ANY FILED CANDIDATE.
The first district in this writeup installment is LD11, a district very close geographically and politically to LD8. Unlike LD8, however, LD11 has slowly been trending towards Democrats, instead of away from them. Encompassing the southern half of Pinal (including a large chunk of Casa Grande) and bits of Pima, LD11 could swing under the right conditions, but is probably a safe seat this year. Thatâs disappointing, since the incumbents in the district are pretty darn nasty.
Incumbent Senator Venden âVinceâ Leach ($98K COH), a sort-of Great Value Mitch McConnell, loves to spend his time filing SB1487 complaints against various liberal towns in Arizona â basically, suing cities over their attempts to go above and beyond state law when it comes to certain issues. Leach leads the SB1487 leaderboard with 4 SB1487 suits, most recently targeting Pima County over COVID-19 safety regulations that were slightly stricter than state law. Joining the suit were his House counterparts, COVID-19 conspiracy-monger Bret Roberts ($22.4K COH) and actual goddamn Oathkeeper and Charlottesville truther Mark Finchem ($27K COH).
Facing Finchem and Roberts is the Democratic House nominee for LD11, Dr. Felipe Perez ($24.2K COH). Perez has made few waves online and I havenât seen him even in the same tier of candidates as Girard in LD8, so heâs probably not going to supercharge this district into Dem. territory. But given the spike in public approval for the healthcare industry due to COVID, he may get lucky. On the Senate side, Leachâs opponent will be one of retired public administrator Linda Patterson ($4.7K COH, Clean) and Marine drill instructor Joanna Mendoza ($14.5K COH). Anything could happen between now and August, but Mendoza currently has a significant organizational, political (endorsements) and fiscal advantage over Patterson, and will probably be the nominee come August.
A well-run race could feasibly knock out Finchem or Roberts, but Iâve yet to see that happen. Still, itâs far out enough that Iâm not going to slam the door shut on a Perez win just yet.
hunter15991 Rating: GOP primary unopposed, Safe Mendoza, Perez unopposed, Safe Leach, Safe Roberts, Likely Finchem general
Really not going to focus much on this district to save space, as itâs a snoozefest. House Majority Leader Warren Petersen ($84.8K COH) is running for Senate to replace outgoing Sen. Eddie Farnsworth. Petersen faces Haitian DREAMer. former teacher, and 2018 LD-12 House nominee Lynsey Robinson ($1.4K COH). Robinsonâs a great person, but lost her House race against Petersen by the 1v1 equivalent of 20 points, and shows no sign of knocking him off this time around.
Petersenâs runningmates, Rep. Travis Grantham ($39K COH) and Queen Creek Councilman Jake Hoffman ($107.7K COH) are unopposed in both the primary and general.
hunter15991 Rating: Primaries all unopposed, Safe Petersen general, GOP House unopposed
Moving on to another Safe GOP district with not much activity â LD13! Stretching from the whiter Yuma neighborhoods all the way to Phoenix exurbs in Maricopa County (and the mirror image of LD4 to its south), LD13 routinely sends Republican slates to the legislature. This year, incumbents Sen. Sine Kerr ($58.5K COH), Rep. Tim Dunn ($60.4K COH), and Rep. Joanne Osborne ($15K COH) are all fighting to hold their seats.
Kerr is unopposed in both the primary and general, while Dunn and Osborne are in the opposite situation â theyâve got two elections between now and inauguration day. Democratic paralegal Mariana Sandoval ($3.1K COH, Clean) will put up little resistance for the GOP in the general, but the entrance of former Senator and former Speaker Pro Tem Steve Montenegro ($27.8K COH) could really shake up the LD13 House primary. Montenegro, a Salvadoran-American legislator who resigned his Senate seat to run for the CD-8 special election primary (he placed 3rd, ultimately losing to then-Sen. Debbie Lesko), was a rising star in the AZ-GOP before his resignation and contemporaneous sexting scandal. This Senate run could be a good way for him to get his foot back in the door, and since his election would single-handedly double the amount of non-white Republicans in the legislator, I would figure that some Arizona Republicans are excited that Montenegro is throwing his hat back into the ring.
I havenât seen much about this primary online, but thereâs vague general on GOP pages dinging Montenegro for his ties to a 2016 National Popular Vote bill in the legislature, which is a big purity sticking point for the further-right members of the Arizona GOP. That being said, the chatter is vague at best, and Montenegro has enough conservative cred (with endorsements from people like Joe Arpaio and former Rep. Trent Franks back during his special election run) that he will primarily face issues over the sexting scandal.
Iâll give Osborne and Dunn a slight advantage over their incumbency, financial well-being, and the issues in Montenegroâs closet, but this is a really tight race and Montenegro could very well end up back in the legislature this time next year.
hunter15991 Rating: Dem. unopposed, Kerr unopposed, Tilt Osborne, Tilt Dunn, All Safe GOP general
This is yet another district where Democrats stand no real chance in competing this year, and havenât in quite some time. Situated in SE Arizona, LD14 once incorporated some ancestrally Democratic mining towns in Greenlee and Graham County, but theyâve grown red enough in the past couple of decades that this district is now held by three GOP legislators.
Former House Speaker and current Sen. David Gowan ($60.9K COH) (who was previously in the news for trying to use a state vehicle to assist in a failed Congressional campaign) faces realtor Bob Karp ($12.9K COH, Clean) in the general, while House incumbents Rep. Gail âTax porn to build the wallâ Griffinâ ($50.5K COH) and Rep. Becky Nutt ($47.4K COH) face retired union activist Ronnie Maestas-Condos ($686 COH, Clean) and teacher Kim Beach-Moschetti ($13K COH, Clean). All 3 races will probably be easy GOP wins.
hunter15991 Rating: Candidates unopposed in primaries, All Safe GOP general
LD15, up in Northern Scottsdale and Phoenix, is one of the final frontiers of suburban expansion for Arizona Democrats, along with the Mormon suburbs of the far East Valley (LD12, 16, and 25). A very wealthy area, LD15 has routinely been a GOP stronghold â but their hold on the area has been dissipating steadily rapidly in the Trump era. In 2018, two Dem. House candidates both managed to outperform the âsingle-shotâ performance of a 2016 candidate, and Kristin Dybvig-Pawelko ($48.6K COH, hereafter âKDPâ) improved on the districtâs 2016 State Senate margin by several points despite facing a significantly more difficult opponent than the 2016 Democrat.
KDP is running again this year, as a single-shot candidate for the State House. Her opponents have yet to be set in stone, as both GOP Representatives are vacating their seats to run for higher office, and there are three GOP candidates in the August primary vying for two nominations. Veteran Steve Kaiser ($13.6K COH) and State House policy adviser Justin Wilmeth ($16K COH, $5.2K self-funded) are the nominal establishment picks for both seats, and have been endorsed by a whole host of GOP legislators. However, they face stiff competition from businessman Jarret Hamstreet ($23.2K COH, $10K self-funded), who boasts endorsements from GOP power-players like the local Chamber of Commerce and the NRA, as well as tacit support from the incumbent Senator in the district Heather Carter ($101.2K COH) (somewhat of an Arizona Lisa Murkowski). Iâve been able to find very little chatter on the race, but with Hamstreetâs significant fundraising advantage I definitely think he secures one of the two nominations this November. While the district is still quite red, KDP is no spring chicken, and facing Kasier, Hamstreet, or Wilmeth will be a lot easier than her run against Carter in 2018.
If Iâm going to be honest, it is the GOP Senate primary that is almost as important as the House general election. Heather Carter has gotten on the bad side of quite a few conservative legislators during her tenure in the Senate, holding up GOP budgets with her partner in crime Paul Boyer in 2019 over a stalled child sexual assault statute of limitations bill and this year over an amendment to give additional funding to firefighters for PPE and to students for tuition support.
That amendment failed 15-15 thanks to one Kate Brophy McGee - more on her later.
Carterâs actual attempts at moderation (as opposed to McGeeâs performative bullshit) has inspired current State Rep. Nancy Barto ($9.9K COH) to challenge her for the Senate. Barto has the support of both Kaiser and Wilmeth (as well as most of the GOP establishment) but has been routinely lagging behind Carter in fundraising (both in terms of current COH and overall amount raised). Carter has been bringing in more âmoderateâ and pro-public education GOP volunteers from all over Phoenix and is sure to put up a fight in August. As it stands, I think she narrowly pulls it off. There is no Democratic Senate opponent in the general, so winning the primary automatically wins the seat.
If youâve got GOP friends in AZ who just canât bare phonebanking for Democratic candidates but complain about the state of the Republican party, send them her way.
Carter has beliefs. Barto has none.
Slate totals:
- CarteHamstreet: $124.4K
- KDP: $48.6K
- Barto coalition (KaiseWilmeth/Barto): $40.5K
LD16, out on the border between Pinal and Maricopa County, is probably the reddest district in Arizona that could still be relatively considered âsuburbanâ. The only Democratic candidate is write-in House candidate Rev. Helen Hunter ($783 COH), and while her background is stellar (incl. past work with the NAACP, Mesa PDâs Use of Force Committee, and other community involvement), there isnât even a guarantee sheâll make it onto the November ballot.
Meanwhile, Rep. Kelly Townsend ($15.5K COH) has tired of the State House (just like she tired of her furry fursona, and is running unopposed for State Senate.
The real drama, therefore, is in the GOP State House primary to win Townsendâs old seat. Incumbent Rep. John Fillmore ($12.9K COH) is running for another term, and seems set to win one of the two nominations. Townsendâs former seat is contested by respiratory therapist Liza Godzich ($14.6K COH) (who wins the âmost moderateâ title by default by virtue of taking COVID kinda seriously), CorpComm policy advisor Jacqueline Parker ($16.4K COH), and school choice activist/general lunatic Forest Moriarty ($17.7K COH).
Moriarty has the valuable Townsend endorsement, but has not been able to consolidate support easily elsewhere â Parkerâs CorpComm ties let her bring quite a few assets of her own to bear, as well as endorsements from Congressman Andy Biggs and the NRA.
This election will be a test of Townsendâs downballot coattails, as well as those of the school choice movement in AZ parlaying any support they may have into legislative results. Success for Moriarty here could go as far as inspiring Townsend to run for Governor. Weâll see if it comes to that.
hunter15991 Rating: No Dem. filed (pending write-in), Townsend unopposed, Lean Fillmore, Tossup ParkeMoriarty, GOP unopposed in general
One of the reasons I significantly delayed writing these writeups was because I was dreading writing about LD17. Not to doxx myself completely, but in 2018 I had far too many negative encounters with the incumbent Democratic Representative, Jennifer Pawlik ($101.3K COH) that made me routinely question my support of her. Iâm still trying to heal the wounds in multiple relationships I have with friends that were caused by Pawlikâs actions.
I deeply regret ever lifting a finger to help her when I had opportunities in other districts. But because her actions never got physical, because the stakes are so high this year, and because too much unsubstantiated negative talk about a candidate can get a post deleted - I donât wish to publicly expound on her actions (nor put words in the mouth of other people who interacted with her). Feel free to PM if interested.
Pawlik as a candidate is a grab-bag. On paper sheâd be a strong option for a suburban district â a teacher and education funding activist with a prior win during the 2018 wave. However, behind the scenes she is quite a poor campaigner in ways that directly impact Democratic candidatesâ odds and presences in the district, including her own - which makes me more apprehensive of her odds of re-election than her fellow Jennifer in HD18 (Rep. Jennifer Jermaine), whoâs quite similar to Pawlik on the whole.
Pawlikâs Senate runningmate this year is local businessman and first-generation American Ajlan âAJâ Kurdoglu ($51.5K COH). AJâs a good guy and more serious of a campaigner than Pawlik, and is on well enough terms with her that no inter-candidate drama will probably happen this fall (which would be a welcome change for the district). Heâs been slightly outpacing her in fundraising and seems to be hitting the ground running.
The Republican incumbents in this district are Sen. JD Mesnard ($102.6K COH), who moonlights as legal counsel for an organization categorized as a hate group by the SPLC, and Jeff Wenninger ($117.8K COH), a backbench Bitcoin bro. Wenninger and Mesnard have both been in their seats for a while, and this cycle were backing Chandler Vice Mayor (and JD Mesnardâs mom) Nora Ellen for the other State House seat â Ellen lost to Pawlik in 2018.
But in a stroke of luck for Pawlik, Ellen failed to qualify for the ballot this year. However, in a similar stroke of luck for the GOP Liz Harris ($27.3K COH, $21.3K self-funded) - a local realtor (like Ellen) - did qualify. Iâve yet to discern just how close she is with Mesnard and Wenninger, and how much cash she is willing to dump into this race, but in terms of how random non-GOP establishment candidates the LD17 Republicans could have done far worse than Harris.
All the pieces in this district would point to a shift even further left than it was in 2018, and had I not known what I know about Pawlik this would be a Tilt D House/Tossup Senate. But I donât know if sheâs changed since 2018 - and if she hasnât, there is no guarantee that she wonât snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
hunter15991 Rating: Primaries uncontested, Tilt Mesnard, Tossup House (Pawlik/Harris), Safe Wenninger
Like LD10 in the previous part of my writeup, the situation in LD18 is another blast of the proverbial Gjallarhorn for the AZ-GOPâs suburban chances. Once a very competitive district (fully red as recently as 2016), LD18 is now held by 3 Democrats â Sen. Sean Bowie ($106.3K COH), Rep. Jennifer Jermaine ($65.7K COH), and Rep. Mitzi Epstein ($60.8K COH). Bowie and Epstein have carved rather moderate paths in their respective houses having been elected back when this district was more competitive, while Jermaineâs tacked a bit more to the left, and has been a prominent voice for increasing education funding (prior to running for the State House she was a public school funding activist and IIRC Moms Demand Action member) and for missing indigenous women (Jermaine is part indigenous herself).
The GOPâs troubles in this district started around the filing deadline, when one of their candidates, Alyssa Shearer, withdrew from the primary. Super anti-abortion nut Don Hawker ($619 COH) filed as a write-in candidate to replace her, but itâs uncertain if heâll qualify for the general election. Their other House candidate, Bob Robson ($11K COH) is on paper a solid candidate (being a former Speaker Pro Tem of the state house), but lost by the equivalent of 6% to Epstein in 2016 and by 19% when he ran for Kyrene Justice of the Peace (a district that roughly matches the boundaries of LD18. Robsonâs an old warhorse) - going 0 for 2 since 2014. Itâs a sign of the times that he and discount Scott Roeder are the two potential House candidates for the GOP in this district.
In the Senate, the GOP doesnât fare much better. Real estate agent Suzanne Sharer ($4.2K COH) is trying to run a semblance of a decent race against Sen. Bowie, but keeps using her campaign Twitter (@blondeandsmart â I promise you thatâs a real handle) to retweet QAnon shit. Sharer is going nowhere in November. Thatâs if she makes it to November, given her past retweets advocating for people to drink bleach to cure COVID.
hunter15991 Rating: Primaries uncontested, All Safe Dem. general
LD19 is a safe Democratic district in the West Valley, where all the drama is happening in the primary. Rep. Lorenzo Sierra ($9.3K COH) and Rep. Diego Espinoza ($25.2K COH) are both running for re-election, defending their seats against challenger Leezah Sun ($5.1K COH), a local activist. Sierra and Espinoza havenât been particularly conservative in their voting records in the legislator, but have taken some flack from the more progressive wing of the party lately for outside corporate expenditures in this primary. Iâm honestly unsure why these PACs are weighing in given that Sun isnât running all that good of a campaign, but I guess better spend it here than in tighter primaries. Assistant State Minority Leader Lupe Contreras ($7.2K COH) is unopposed in his primary.
In the general, thereâs one GOP candidate for both House and Senate, but both are write-ins and could possibly not qualify for the ballot. For now, Democrats are unopposed in this district in the general.
hunter15991 Contreras uncontested, Safe Sierra, Safe Espinoza, Uncontested Dem. general
LD20 is another suburban district where Democrats could see sizable gains this fall. Won by Sinema and Maricopa County Recorder Adrian Fontes, and almost snagged by David Garcia during the 2014 Superintendent race, LD20 has been on the Arizona Democratic Partyâs mind for a few cycles now. Their candidates this year are strong â 2018 Senate nominee Doug Ervin ($94.6K COH) has filed for a rematch after losing by 4 in 2018 (where an independent ex-GOP candidate took 7% - Ervin claims Quelland actually hurt him more than district Republicans), and retired teacher Judy Schweibert ($158.2K COH) is running for House. Both are running bang-up campaigns and seem set to make November a problem for local Republicans, and Ervin has eschewed the public funding he took last time in order to be able to fundraise better for the slugfest ahead.
The local GOP, however, isnât taking this lying down. Representatives Shawnna Bolick ($161.8K COH) - who was almost bumped off the ballot for using a PO Box as her filing address - and Anthony Kern ($73.4K COH) - an ex-cop on the Brady âuntrustworthy copâ list - have been building their warchests in preparation for this cycle after narrowly hanging on in 2018 (despite both Democrats in that race running with public funding). While Bolick has typically stayed out of especially heinous controversy on social media (despite once posting that all masks come from Wuhan and are thus contaminated with COVID), Kernâs time on the force seems to have stuck with him, and his Twitter feed is full of a lot of pro-cop posts and whatnot. With Schweibert running as a single-shot candidate this year I can see Kernâs tendency of accidentally discharging his foot into his mouth finally coming back to bite him.
On the Senate side the past election results are slightly more promising than the House, but the opponent is tougher as well. Sen. Paul Boyer ($50.5K COH) is probably the closest there is to a living John McCain in the Arizona Legislature (not to deify him too much â heâs still conservative), having blocked two GOP budgets in the past two years along with Sen. Heather Carter (see LD15). In 2019 this was over a child sexual assault reform bill (extending the statute of limitations), and in 2020 this was over a lack of funding to firefighters and university students in the emergency âskinnyâ COVID budget the legislature passed in the spring. His attempts at moderation are visible outside of that: Boyerâs abysmal Q2 fundraising â per his own words â came from not fundraising at all during the 5 month long legislative session despite campaign finance rules only banning lobbyist contributions during the session (and I guess thatâs commendable self-policing), and on his website he stops just short of calling for abortion to be banned, which makes him Margaret fucking Sanger among the current AZ-GOP.
Thatâs not to say that people shouldnât support Ervin with all it takes â hell, if anything heâll need more help to oust Boyer. Ultimately I think Ervin holds a narrow lead in this race with the absence of Quelland and with far better fundraising than what the LD20 slate had last year, but the election is still quite far away. If I had to pick one Democrat to win in this district, itâd be Schweibert.
hunter15991 Rating: Primaries uncontested, Tilt Ervin, Tilt Schweibert, 2nd House uncontested
2020.07.16 00:28 g4m3f33d EXTREME Prop Hunt Challenge vs Carter Sharer! *TeamRAR House*
 | submitted by g4m3f33d to GameFeed [link] [comments] |